Three major prediction market platforms have agreed on a nearly identical figure regarding the direction of United States monetary policy next month. Data from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Myriad concurrently show a probability of around 74% that the Federal Reserve will hold and not change its benchmark interest rates at the September 2026 committee meeting.
On Polymarket, the option to hold interest rates leads at 74%, leaving a 25% chance for a quarter-point increase and a 1% chance of a cut. This distribution is backed by real money wagered by traders, with transaction volume reaching $33.9 million.
A similar pattern is visible on the Kalshi exchange, which operates under the supervision of the CFTC trading commission. The odds of the rates remaining unchanged stand at 73.5%, drawn from a total inflow of nearly $10 million. Meanwhile, on Myriad, a prediction platform owned by the Dastan group, which also houses the Decrypt news outlet, the trend aligns with the hold option sitting around 71%. The narrow gap between these three major platforms is interpreted by analysts as the formation of a cohesive market consensus.
Diverging Paths for Stocks and Crypto Ahead of FOMC
These market predictions are shaping up ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for September 15-16. At the previous meeting in July 2026, the committee decided to maintain interest rates in the 3.50%-3.75% range. The decision was reached by a 9-3 vote composition, with three members having urged the committee to immediately raise interest rates.
The traders’ bets align with a Reuters poll showing that nearly 70% of economists project no change in monetary policy until the end of 2026. Although holding interest rates remains the baseline scenario, market participants are still hedging their portfolios against a potential surprise rate hike when the official statement is released on September 16.
The market has responded to these macro conditions in two different ways. Wall Street surged, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices closing in on record highs. Artificial intelligence stocks gained after Anthropic posted quarterly revenue of $11.5 billion.
Where Crypto Prices Stand Now
In contrast, the digital asset market is still fluctuating in search of a footing, a trend that often repeats whenever the calendar approaches the Federal Reserve’s monetary decision. In the first half of this year, crypto market value plunged suddenly when a series of strong U.S. labor data reports eroded hopes for a near-term rate cut.
Ahead of next month’s crucial meeting, Bitcoin price movements remain held below the $64,000 mark and Ethereum continues to struggle to maintain the $1,900 level. With the prospects of a near-term rate cut fading, the rotation of tens of millions of dollars in prediction markets has become a reference for how institutions are positioning their money facing this challenging quarter.
Reported from Decrypt.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and carry significant risk. Always do your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
