VanEck analysts have just released a note on the direction of Bitcoin’s price movement. On August 18, 2026, they stated that the world’s largest cryptocurrency may be starting to approach an accumulation phase. This conclusion was drawn after eight of their 12 proprietary capitulation indicators flashed active as of August 12.
The current price correction has entered its tenth month since hitting a record high in October 2025. According to VanEck’s observations, if the current cycle mirrors previous patterns, the turning point might arrive between September and November.
A Shallower Bear Market
Bitcoin has dropped about 49% from its record peak. This decline turns out to be only in the 35th percentile in its price history. VanEck uses a specific threshold of a price drop greater than 35% to mark capitulation, differing from the percentile rules used in other indicators.
The presence of large players seems to help cushion the impact to the bottom. VanEck acknowledged that the presence of spot ETFs and institutional ownership could result in a shallower bear market. For comparison, Bitcoin’s bear markets in past cycles saw sharp declines of 78-94%.
Capital flows are slowly improving, though not in a completely straight line. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $663 million during the 30-day period analyzed by VanEck, reversing outflows of $2.4 billion in the previous month. However, these spot funds lost $385.2 million in the week ending August 14.
The Riddle of Old Coin Holders
Amid ETF movements, the behavior of long-term holders has raised questions. The volume of coins held for more than a year shrank by 356,534 BTC over a 30-day period. This 2.9% decline leaves 11.84 million BTC, or 59.1% of the total circulating supply.
VanEck noted the Coldcard wallet security vulnerability issue as a possible cause for the movement of some of these old coins, though they emphasized that this is difficult to prove via blockchain tracking.
For traders chasing quick movements, VanEck’s backtesting results suggest applying the brakes. When 8 to 12 indicators are active simultaneously, Bitcoin’s price rises by an average of only 12.8% over 90 days, falling below the normal baseline of 15.2%. For a 180-day period, the gain was recorded at 32%, also below the benchmark of 36.3%. Performance returns outperforming the historical average only fully emerge on a one-year horizon.
Despite the stack of capitulation indicators, Bitcoin was trading around $64,300 on August 19 after briefly reclaiming the $64,000 support level.
Many indicator lights on the analytical dashboard may have lit up, but history shows that Bitcoin is not obligated to immediately run according to calculations on paper. Reporting from crypto.news.
Read also: What Is Bitcoin Halving?
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and carry significant risk. Always do your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
