Prediction market Polymarket has priced the odds of the CLARITY Act passing this year at just 40%. This estimate is down from Galaxy Digital’s projection on June 26, which still gave it a 50% chance. The drop comes right ahead of a deadline set by Senate Majority Leader John Thune, who confirmed that a Senate vote will take place before August 10.
The legislation, aimed at providing the first comprehensive federal regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States, has run into hurdles beyond technology. A House Financial Services Committee subcommittee held a hearing last Friday. During the oversight forum, Rep. Bryan Steil emphasized that their legislative direction remains unchanged. “Our goal is clear - replace regulation by enforcement with clear rules for digital assets,” he said. However, the consolidated text of the CLARITY Act bill itself had still not been published as of Friday evening.
Ethics Rules for Officials
The drafting stall stems from a lack of bipartisan agreement on ethics provisions. The primary sticking point is a proposed rule that would prohibit elected officials from promoting or issuing their own crypto assets. Blockchain Association CEO Summer Mersinger bluntly summarized the deadlock: “Ethics is the elephant in the room.”
Strong opposition came from Democratic Senators Chris Murphy, Jeff Merkley, Chris Van Hollen, and Elizabeth Warren. The most prominent push came from Warren, who demanded that Trump voluntarily disclose his crypto earnings for 2026. The call for transparency points to a 2025 disclosure clearly showing that Trump made over $1.4 billion from the crypto sector throughout last year.
Who Gets Regulated
This situation has quickly shifted the trajectory of the CLARITY Act debate. What began as an effort to establish clear rules of the road for industry players has turned into a battleground over ethical standards for the public officials debating it.
For outside observers awaiting legal certainty, the delayed bill drafting underscores a political reality in the capital: a digital asset legislative framework will not move forward smoothly as long as policymakers remain divided over the boundaries of their own conflicts of interest, rather than focusing on the substance of protecting user assets.
Reported by CoinDesk.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and carry significant risk. Always do your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
