Senate Majority Leader John Thune confirmed that the CLARITY Act will not be brought to the floor for a vote before the August recess begins, as reported by Fortune on July 24, 2026. On prediction market Polymarket, the odds of the bill passing into law in 2026 immediately fell to 33%, down sharply from a peak of over 80% in late February.
More than $2.56 million has been wagered on the Polymarket prediction contract. Similar pessimism was reflected on the Kalshi platform, which gave just a 40.3% probability that the draft would pass before Friday’s recess.
What Is Stalling the Legislation?
To pass, the legislation requires 60 votes in the Senate. Republicans currently hold 53 seats, meaning they need at least seven votes from Democrats. However, seven Democratic senators have opposed the latest draft over ethics guidelines, consumer protection, and law enforcement provisions.
The core dispute centers on who holds authority. The proposed draft places ethics enforcement powers solely with the Department of Justice (DOJ). Democrats opposed this clause because the DOJ operates under presidential control, in this case Trump. Disappointed with the proposal, Senator Gallego bluntly described the Republican draft returned to them as not a serious effort.
Major Backing Comes Too Late
The political stalemate stands in stark contrast to the wave of support from outside the Senate. The National Fraternal Order of Police, a union with 382,000 members, recently came around to express full support for the CLARITY Act after completing its review of the digital asset law enforcement provisions.
Financial and crypto industry executives have not given up either. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, and Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon continue to push the legislation forward. Three major trade associations - the Crypto Council for Innovation, the Digital Chamber, and the Blockchain Association - also sent a letter directly to Thune and Schumer, urging them to schedule floor time promptly.
A Narrow Post-Election Window
With the pre-August recess window closed, the only remaining hope lies in the post-November election session. Wintermute representative Ron Hammond noted that the votes in the Senate are likely there, but have been overshadowed by the political noise leading up to the election. Hammond projected that this noise will subside after November, opening a narrow but viable window.
However, a post-election session is no walk in the park. The bill will have to compete for floor time against government spending negotiations, defense legislation, and a backlog of other pending bills.
The year-end window will be a fierce battleground for Congressional attention. For the crypto industry, the challenge is no longer fine-tuning the policy language, but ensuring the bill is not buried at the bottom of the pile when lawmakers return to work in Washington.
Sourced from crypto.news.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and carry significant risk. Always do your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
