The crypto market is accustomed to watching the four-year calendar, but one of the largest asset managers suspects that clock may no longer be relevant. Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl has put forward a new projection suggesting Bitcoin’s price may have reached its bottom earlier than in traditional bear cycles. This analysis breaks from historical patterns long used as market benchmarks, where typical cycles predict a new bottom forming between September and October 2026.
Pandl argues that Bitcoin has now matured as an asset class. Rather than merely being subject to the network’s internal cycles, Bitcoin’s price action is now driven more by global macroeconomic dynamics.
“If the Fed holds off on rate hikes and economic growth holds up well, Bitcoin prices may have already touched a bottom,” Pandl said in sharing his outlook.
Two Supply-Side Signals
This macroeconomic view aligns with several on-chain data findings. Research firm K33 reported that more than 50% of the Bitcoin supply is currently held at a loss. Throughout crypto market history, such a high proportion of supply trapped in the red has often preceded upward price reversals.
Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten also highlighted a key metric adding weight to this thesis. Long-term investors now hold 14.7 million Bitcoin, setting a new all-time high in holdings. This accumulation of supply in the hands of dedicated investors indicates fading selling pressure, providing an additional signal that the market may have already hit its bottom.
A Directional Test in Late July
This new cycle thesis faces an immediate litmus test in the near future. The Fed is scheduled to decide its next interest rate policy on July 29. Heading into the meeting, the market is pricing in a 66% chance of a rate pause - down from an 88% probability the previous week.
Despite several supporting signals, not all major players agree with Grayscale’s new perspective. Lebit Mining Pool founder Jiang Zhuoer belongs to the group of analysts still adhering to the old pattern. He predicts that the true bottom will only arrive in the final quarter of the year, targeting a window between October and December 2026.
Pandl himself leaves room for further downside by issuing a clear warning regarding regulation. If the draft CLARITY Act fails to pass lawmakers this year, companies with crypto treasury reserves risk continued deleveraging. Such forced sell-offs could push Bitcoin prices below their current floors.
Reported via Cointelegraph.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and carry significant risk. Always do your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
