Bitcoin risks falling below $16,500 before the end of 2026 if the $50,000 price level is breached. The warning was issued by economist Peter Schiff in a post on X on November 14. According to Schiff, downward momentum in the leading cryptocurrency is strengthening, opening the risk of a deeper continuation decline.
What caught market attention this time was not just the target figure, but the two-stage calculation he presented to investors.
How Schiff’s Two-Stage Decline Works
Schiff broke down his projected drop into two consecutive phases. The first stage hinges on the $50,000 level as a decisive threshold. In Schiff’s calculations, a break below that price point would accelerate panic selling in the open market, putting pressure on the conviction of asset holders hoping for an upward trend.
Once the first phase is triggered, the second stage is projected to bring a further decline of more than 67%. That correction would push prices toward the 2022 bear market low below $16,500. According to Schiff, these two phases threaten to reverse the gains established in the current cycle.
Strategy’s $4.77 Billion Cash Reserve
Schiff’s focus turned to the heavy risks looming over Strategy (MSTR), the world’s largest public Bitcoin holder. The company purchased an additional 1,036 BTC worth $81.9 million between November 2 and November 8. The purchase was made at an average price of $79,012 per coin, shortly before Schiff’s warning was published.
That move further increased the company’s accumulated holdings. According to disclosure reports as of November 9, Strategy held 850,364 BTC. The entire reserve was acquired for $64.16 billion at an average purchase price of $75,456 per coin.
Beyond its crypto holdings, Strategy’s balance sheet is backed by cash liquidity. Records as of November 8 indicate the company held $4.77 billion in U.S. dollar reserves alongside $146.2 million in general cash. Of that general cash, $21.1 million has been allocated to pay preferred stock dividends.
Rebuttals from Three Technical Analysts
Schiff’s pessimistic view has not gone without contestation among market watchers. Several technical analysts view Bitcoin’s price structure from the opposite perspective. Doctor Profit, for one, designated the $68,000 area as a major buy zone for market participants seeking to add to their positions.
A similar perspective was shared by analyst Michaël van de Poppe, who projected a potential rebound toward the $72,000 to $74,000 range. At the same time, Daan Crypto Trades focused his analysis on the resilience of the weekly candlestick chart, emphasizing the importance of weekly close prices holding above the 200-week moving average.
For market participants weighing the next direction, this divergence in views outlines a concrete risk boundary: the $50,000 level flagged by Schiff as a panic trigger, set directly against the $68,000 buy zone defended by technical analysts.
Reported by crypto.news.
Also read: How to Read Candlestick Charts for Beginners
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and carry significant risk. Always do your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
