The numbers sound impossible on paper. To reach a target price of $1 million per coin by 2030, Bitcoin requires a fresh capital injection of $15 trillion. 10x Research head of research Markus Thielen emphasized that this fresh cash burden is equivalent to 25% of the total market value of all stocks in the United States. All of that capital would have to shift and flow into Bitcoin in just the next four years.
Thielen bluntly stated that the $1 million prediction is mathematically impossible. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around the $63,868 level with a total market capitalization of about $1.28 trillion. Closing the gap from the current position to the million-dollar threshold requires a massive volume of liquidity. “It takes trillions and trillions of dollars to move the price materially higher,” Thielen said.
The Psychological Reality of Retail Buyers
The price barrier is not just about the absence of institutional money, but also a matter of retail buyer behavior. Thielen highlighted a simple fact from the psychology of retail investors: many people are reluctant to buy just a decimal fraction of a Bitcoin. They have a strong psychological urge to own a whole unit of the coin.
For average retail investors, purchasing a whole Bitcoin at a price of tens of thousands of dollars presents a lifestyle dilemma. “Is it better to buy a new car or one Bitcoin?” Thielen said. He mentioned that this question often crosses the minds of prospective investors before they decide to hit the buy button.
Short-term price momentum also adds to the burden of reaching that high target. Bitcoin is down 2.35% over the past 30-day period. Amid this sluggish trend, Thielen even stated that the record all-time high of $126,000 may not return anytime soon. Instead of aiming too high, even if Bitcoin climbs to the $100,000 level, Thielen would already call it a major achievement.
Prominent Figures and High-Number Promises
The $1 million Bitcoin prediction did not emerge from a vacuum. This round number has been repeatedly floated by powerful names in the tech industry. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, and ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood have all publicly shared that target price.
Thielen sees a recurring pattern behind these campaigns. Bombastic predictions are indeed much easier to attract media coverage and draw mass attention. Unfortunately, promises this high tend to end up hurting retail investors who have already put their faith and capital at stake.
Ultimately, capital markets move because of real money flows, not the drive of interview quotes. Imagining a quarter of all US stock capitalization shifting to a single digital asset within a 48-month period is a scenario that has no historical basis.
Reported from Cointelegraph.
Read also: What Is Bitcoin Halving?
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and carry significant risk. Always do your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
