After two nerve-wracking sessions for traders, the crypto market finally breathed a sigh of relief on Friday. Bitcoin jumped around 3% to the $64,300 range, once again testing a level it failed to break earlier in the week - and the catalyst came from outside the crypto sphere.
WTI crude oil plunged below $72 following reports that the United States and Iran would resume peace talks. Earlier, President Donald Trump stated that the temporary ceasefire was “over,” triggering a sell-off in risk assets. News of continued negotiations reversed sentiment: risk appetite recovered, lifting crypto along with it.
A Broad-Based Rebound, Not Just Bitcoin
Ethereum posted even stronger gains, rising roughly 2.6% to $1,790 and pushing toward $1,800 - fueled by a short squeeze that triggered a cascade of short liquidations. Technically, ETH broke above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement near $1,773 and is now eyeing resistance at $1,833. The altcoin sector also gained momentum heading into the weekend: Zcash and Aave both surged around 5% as optimism gradually returned to speculative bets.
Several additional factors fueled the rally. Weak US employment data - with only 57,000 new jobs added in June - strengthened expectations of earlier Fed rate cuts. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh even noted that inflation risks have eased, putting downward pressure on bond yields and the dollar, which in turn benefited non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. Interestingly, crypto moved inversely to US equities: S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures slipped slightly on the same day.
A Cautionary Signal Hidden Behind the Euphoria
However, analysts warn that traders should not get overly euphoric just yet. On July 10, roughly $1.75 billion (over Rp28 trillion) in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expired - and the data points to a cautious tone. Around 23,000 Bitcoin options contracts expired with a put-call ratio of 0.97 and a max pain point of $62,000, well below current price levels. For Ethereum, the put-call ratio stood at 1.26 - indicating put options outnumbered calls - with a max pain level of $1,700.
According to Greeks.live data, traders continue to pay higher premiums for downside protection compared to upside bets across all major tenors. In other words, while spot prices have bounced, the derivatives market is still holding up an “umbrella” against a potential correction. Combined with the fact that Strategy sold $216 million worth of Bitcoin earlier this week, the signal is clear: the recovery is real, but not yet on solid ground.
The $64,700-$65,000 zone now serves as the initial test, where significant leveraged positions have accumulated. If Bitcoin can break through, the path toward the June 15 high of $67,250 opens up. Still, analysts unanimously caution that this move is a relief rally rather than a confirmed trend reversal. As long as the catalyst is driven by geopolitical developments that can shift overnight, caution remains a trader’s best ally.
Reported by crypto.news.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and carry significant risk. Always do your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
