There is a line on the chart that has rarely missed catching Bitcoin’s major bottoms over the past decade - and price is now sliding right toward it. Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s director of global macro, noted that Bitcoin is drifting toward the lower boundary of a model he has used for years to track it.
That model is known as the power law: a logarithmic chart plotting Bitcoin’s entire price history across three curves - an upper resistance line, a mid trendline, and a lower support line that has caught every major bottom since 2015. On Timmer’s latest chart, that support line sits near $58,000, with Bitcoin inching closer as it trades around $62,700.
Inside the ‘Accumulation Zone’
The lower panel of the chart is where Timmer expects dip-buying to emerge. It measures how far Bitcoin is trading above or below its power law trendline - and that distance has now plunged to minus 56 percent, a depth labeled on the chart as an accumulation zone. Similar readings coincided with major price bottoms in 2018 and 2022. Moreover, the 52-week Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has dropped as low as minus 100 percent.
For many long-term investors, a signal like this usually rings like an opportunity bell. However, Timmer is choosing to hold back.
Why He Isn’t Calling ‘Buy’ Just Yet
Timmer is not declaring a definitive bottom yet. He argues that the speculative premium that drove Bitcoin past $120,000 last year has now largely evaporated, global money supply growth is slowing, and he sees no catalyst for a reversal until liquidity begins flowing again. His takeaway: Bitcoin could linger near its support line for months before truly reversing, rather than staging an instant bounce.
Fast money has already moved on. Timmer noted that capital rotated from Bitcoin to gold, and then from gold into semiconductor stocks - which is where the chase is currently taking place.
Reading the Signal with a Level Head
An accumulation zone is not a magic switch that automatically propels prices higher. Instead, what Timmer offers is a lesson in patience: an asset level can be historically cheap, yet still requires a tangible catalyst - in this case, the return of liquidity - to spark a reversal. For Bitcoin holders, the takeaway is not euphoria, but a reminder that market bottoms often form slowly and painfully, rather than through clean, instant rebounds.
Reported via CoinDesk.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and carry significant risk. Always do your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
