Spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed $134.4 million in capital across the first two trading days of October 2026. The inflows erased the $148.7 million loss recorded on September 30, a bout of selling pressure that briefly snapped a nine-session streak of consecutive inflows that began on September 17.
According to analytics firm SoSoValue, September remained the second-best performing month for Bitcoin ETFs since October 2025, accumulating $2.65 billion in net inflows. Total cumulative inflows since the launch of the ETFs now stand at $58.1 billion, bringing the net asset value of all investment managers in the category to $101.1 billion.
The Labor Data Effect
The capital market reaction in early October followed the latest report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The document showed that the US added just 29,000 jobs in September, pushing the national unemployment rate up to 4.2%.
The labor data dealt a blow to market expectations for the central bank’s monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch indicator, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October plunged from 70% to 14% immediately after the unemployment report was released.
The sharp drop in the likelihood of higher rates did not immediately reverse sentiment among all crypto bettors. Data from prediction platform Myriad showed market participants pricing in a 93% probability that Bitcoin will not set a new all-time high in 2026. This pessimistic outlook clashes directly with findings from Algoz analyst Stephen Wundke, who highlighted Bitcoin’s track record of gaining an average of 18% in October over the past decade.
Institutional Long-Term Positions
On-chain metrics show that fund managers continue to build their positions despite short-term fluctuations. CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha noted that combined ETF holdings climbed from 1.20 million BTC on July 1 to 1.288 million BTC as of October 4. The addition of roughly 88,000 BTC, or 7.3%, mirrored a 43% surge in Bitcoin’s price, which rose from $59,500 to $85,000 over the same period.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju pointed to this price movement and institutional accumulation as evidence of a trend transition. He emphasized that the bear market phase looming over Bitcoin ended last summer, placing the market’s current trajectory squarely in the early stages of a new cycle.
The endurance of this streak of ETF inflows will be tested by the upcoming macroeconomic calendar. Investors are preparing to assess inflation trends through the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on October 14, an instrument that will serve as a key reference for the Federal Reserve’s meeting on October 28.
Reported by Decrypt.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and carry significant risk. Always do your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
