The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an addition of 29,000 jobs in September, falling far short of the projected 90,000 positions. The same report also revised data from previous months downward. July’s figure was revised from an addition of 21,000 to a loss of 10,000 jobs, while August’s gains were cut from 162,000 to 133,000 jobs. Alongside these downward revisions, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, exceeding analyst expectations of 4.1%.
Bitcoin responded to the labor data by breaking above the $86,757 level during Friday trading. The leading cryptocurrency gained 3% in the last 24 hours and 2% over the week, according to CoinGecko. The sudden upward surge past the $85,000 threshold quickly liquidated $110 million in short positions across derivatives markets in just 10 minutes, as reported by WatcherGuru. Despite positive daily and weekly momentum, Bitcoin remains 31% below its all-time high from a year ago.
Rate Pause Odds Strengthen
Betting markets on CME FedWatch shifted immediately in response to the slowing employment data. The odds of the central bank holding interest rates steady in October jumped to 74%, a sharp reversal from 35.8% the week prior. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams stated there is no urgency to raise rates again following their September policy move. Vice Chair Philip Jefferson echoed that sentiment, emphasizing that policy adjustments must remain data-dependent and guided by the balance of risks ahead.
The cooling job market aligned with slower average hourly earnings growth, which rose just 0.1% compared to the 0.3% forecast. Despite the broader softening picture, weekly jobless claims fell to 197,000, reaching their lowest level since March 2023. The bond market responded by pushing 10-year Treasury yields down 7 basis points to 5.17%. Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev noted that cooling inflation without widespread labor weakness will continue to support risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Institutions Accumulate Bitcoin in ‘Uptober’
Institutional participation also helped bolster price action. Institutional capital totaling $200 million flowed into Morgan Stanley’s ETF last month, signaling that major investment banks are beginning to allocate Bitcoin into their clients’ portfolios. Blockchain analytics platform lookonchain noted that seven-day net inflows across all Bitcoin ETF products reached a surplus of 3,096 BTC, or approximately $258.99 million, on October 1. This positive weekly figure came even as the market recorded daily outflows of 1,796 BTC worth $150.24 million on the same day.
Bitcoin’s latest price rally comes at the start of October, historically the asset’s best-performing month. Over the past decade, October has delivered an average gain of 18%, while fourth-quarter returns have historically averaged 46%. Institutional inflows amid expectations of a rate pause have prompted market participants to test Bitcoin’s price resistance heading toward year-end. Reported by Decrypt.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and carry significant risk. Always do your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
