Usually, this combination is enough to send markets plunging: the United States launched strikes against Iran for the third time in a week, and Tehran announced the Strait of Hormuz is closed ‘until further notice’. Yet on Saturday, Bitcoin held around $63,800 - down just 0.3% in 24 hours, and still up 2% on the week. Why has the market been so muted?
When Bitcoin Is the Only Open Market
Part of the answer comes down to timing. The strikes took place over the weekend when oil, stocks, and bonds were closed. That effectively left Bitcoin as the only major market open to ‘price in’ these events in real time - and it treated it almost like a non-event.
US Central Command stated that President Trump ordered strikes targeting Iran’s capability to attack commercial shipping, following an incident involving a Cyprus-flagged container ship. Iranian media reported explosions along the southern coast, including energy hubs in Bushehr and Asalouyeh as well as the port city of Bandar Abbas. Even so, the market response remained subdued - a pattern that is starting to feel familiar.
The Real Test Comes on Monday
This calm may not last. A fuller cross-asset reaction, especially in crude oil, will likely only emerge on Monday when markets open. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent crude had already carried a risk premium into the weekend as tanker traffic through the strait fell below normal.
By comparison, when Iran first closed Hormuz in early March, Brent spiked past $100 per barrel for the first time in four years and briefly approached $120 - with Bitcoin plunging sharply alongside each escalation. The real test: if oil opens sharply higher on Monday while Bitcoin holds firm, that would send a distinctly different signal than usual.
What to Watch for Behind the Calm
Bitcoin’s flat reaction can be interpreted in two ways. On the optimistic side, the market may view the Hormuz closure as a threat Tehran has made and walked back several times before - meaning there is no need to panic. On the cautious side, weekend calm is often deceptive since most other asset classes have not yet had their say. For crypto holders, the upcoming week’s open will be far more telling: whether Bitcoin truly stands on its own as a shock-resistant asset, or is merely delaying its reaction until other markets open. Sourced from CoinDesk.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and carry significant risk. Always do your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
