More than 158 million Brazilian voters are deciding on their next president today, October 4, 2026. The race is tight. A final Datafolha poll surveying 4,006 voters across 122 cities placed Lula at 45% of valid votes, compared to Flávio Bolsonaro at 42%. The CNT/MDA institute recorded a similar gap, with Lula at 47.8% and Bolsonaro at 42.1%.
If no candidate clears the 50% threshold, a runoff is scheduled for October 25. Datafolha’s projections for that scenario fall within the margin of error: Lula at 47% and Bolsonaro at 46%.
However, the Polymarket prediction market shows different odds. As of October 1, bettors gave Bolsonaro a 62% chance of winning, leaving Lula trailing at 37%.
For the crypto industry, this election will determine its future operational framework. Consultations to discuss crypto taxes were even postponed ahead of the vote, and their resumption hinges entirely on who emerges victorious today.
Central Bank Regulatory Tightening
Under the Lula administration, the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) has tightened its grip on crypto exchanges through a series of resolutions. BCB Resolution 520, set to take effect on February 2, outlines governance requirements, customer protection, and anti-money laundering (AML) compliance for all virtual asset service providers (VASPs).
Asset flow monitoring rules have also been tightened. Resolution 588 took effect on October 1, requiring financial institutions to report to the Coaf watchdog whenever virtual assets worth $10,000 or more are transferred to or from self-custody wallets.
The next deadline arrives on November 6 under Resolution 589. This rule prohibits BCB-regulated institutions from facilitating virtual asset transactions with service providers not licensed in Brazil. The impact is already tangible: platform Lemon decided to withdraw from the Brazilian market due to prohibitive licensing capital requirements, scheduling the closure of all its customer accounts in the country for October 16.
Beyond the central bank, normative instruction 2.291 from DeCripto has also incorporated all crypto transactions since July 2026 into a new reporting system aligned with OECD CARF global tax standards.
Deregulation as an Alternative Path
Bolsonaro’s camp has not yet detailed its crypto blueprint. His government platform submitted to the electoral court (TSE) contains no specific policies for the sector, listing only plans for a “revogaço regulatório” or broad regulatory rollback.
The digital asset industry awaits clarity. A Lula victory would cement the ongoing strict oversight regime, while Bolsonaro offers the prospect of reversing licensing rules that burden exchange operations.
Reported by crypto.news.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and carry significant risk. Always do your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
