The odds of passage for the United States’ major crypto bill, the CLARITY Act, have slid to 10% according to Galaxy Digital’s estimates as of August 14, a stark contrast to initial predictions. On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the bill being passed also plummeted from 82% in February to below 20% in mid-August. This decline was triggered by stalled political lobbying ahead of the scheduled procedural vote, or cloture, on September 15. This voting stage requires 60 votes to proceed, meaning the Republican camp must secure support from Democratic senators.
Faced with this political deadlock, Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego issued a public warning on August 19. Speaking at the SALT Wyoming Blockchain Symposium, Gallego cautioned that forcing a vote in the near term risks undermining the bipartisan agreement currently being drafted. “Don’t chase a quick vote. A quick vote gets you a quick result, but I’m not sure it’s the result you want,” Gallego emphasized. Meanwhile, the House of Representatives had already passed their version of the bill in a 294-134 vote in July 2025, but the draft’s journey through the Senate has proven much more difficult.
Three Roadblocks on the Negotiation Table
Gallego along with Republican Senator Thom Tillis had actually drafted proposed language for ethics rules and sent it to the White House before the congressional recess began, but the response received was far from expectations. Gallego revealed that they had repeatedly sent compromise offers, only to receive replies that were empty, positions that retreated further from the start, or no reply at all.
As of the third week of August, three technical disputes are still holding up the progress of the CLARITY Act. The first point concerns the ethics clause for public officials with interests in digital assets. The second point debates whether yield can be offered on stablecoin balances. Meanwhile, the third point involves a jurisdictional tug-of-war, namely the plan to merge authority between the Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee in overseeing the crypto industry.
A Different Direction at the White House
On the same day as Gallego’s warning, a different push came from Donald Trump. During a White House meeting on August 19 attended by industry leaders - including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, the Winklevoss twins who founded Gemini, and representatives from Ripple and Chainlink Labs - Trump urged Congress to immediately pass a fair version of the CLARITY Act.
Armstrong responded to these dynamics with a positive outlook. Following the meeting, he projected that the bill still stands a chance to secure more than 60 votes once the cloture procedure is fully debated in the Senate. However, for market participants, the 10% odds on paper serve as a reminder that high-level meetings do not instantly resolve technical deadlocks in committees. The fate of this crypto regulation now depends entirely on an ethics rule compromise that has yet to see a breakthrough.
As reported by crypto.news.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and carry significant risk. Always do your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
