Bitcoin has rebounded 28% over the past ten days, a reversal following a roughly 50% plunge from its peak in October 2025. Wall Street firm Bernstein concluded that this recent price action signals the crypto market’s bearish cycle has officially come to an end.
Bernstein analysts project Bitcoin’s price will climb back to touch the $125,000 mark by the end of 2026, according to a research report confirmed by Cointelegraph. The ambitious price target is set as the objective across both base and bull-case scenarios from their research team.
Why Prices Will No Longer Crash 90%
Bernstein’s analysis breaks down the history of Bitcoin’s four-year cycles tied to the halving schedule. They divide the market cycle into four main recurring phases: breakout, hype, drawdown, and finally, investor accumulation.
In the current cycle, the deepest decline during the drawdown phase since the October 2025 peak bottomed out at 50%. This downturn is significantly shallower compared to historical market patterns, where intense selloffs often slashed Bitcoin’s value by 75% or even 90%.
The growing role of institutional and corporate investors now provides stronger downside support during market downtrends. Companies like Strategy have helped lock up supply, holding 840,447 BTC on their balance sheets - representing roughly 4% of Bitcoin’s total 21 million supply limit worldwide. Bernstein also noted that a future asset price recovery would improve the business outlook for Strategy.
Price Roadmap Toward 2033
The upward price trajectory is not limited to the $125,000 target by the end of 2026. Moving into the 2029 market phase, Bernstein maintains a price target of $300,000 for its base case, with the potential to surge to $500,000 under a bull-case scenario.
Estimates from other industry watchers have also added to market sentiment on social media platform X. Tracking account WatcherGuru shared a post projecting Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by mid-2027, though this figure is notably more conservative when compared to Bernstein’s full report cited by Cointelegraph. Regardless of which milestone is reached first, Bernstein’s long-term target for Bitcoin remains unchanged: $1 million per coin by 2033, under both base and optimistic scenarios.
While crypto market cycles have not disappeared entirely, the severity of drawdowns has shifted. As corporate entities absorb a notable percentage of the global supply, the market’s price floor is no longer left entirely to the panic of retail sellers.
Reported by Cointelegraph.
Read also: What Is Bitcoin Halving?
Read also: $9.5 Billion Loss Turns Into Biggest Profit in History - Michael Saylor Holds 840,447 Bitcoin
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and carry significant risk. Always do your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
