Bitcoin is currently trading at $85,899, and traders are aggressively seeking exposure in anticipation of further upside. In the derivatives market, an options trade has stood out as the most notable maneuver over the past 24 hours. A $3.2 million butterfly options position was recently placed, making a major bet that Bitcoin will break above $95,000 by the end of October 2026.
Analysis from CoinDesk sees a clear path toward $95,000, bolstered by the lack of strong resistance zones from current price levels. The building buying momentum is even expected to have enough strength to push prices toward $98,000 in the short term.
At Monday’s market close, Bitcoin’s daily candle broke through its May high and ended the session above key resistance levels, marking a pivotal moment for market structure. The asset now firmly stands above all its major moving averages - the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day - a setup reflecting a bullish configuration.
“BTC has reclaimed all its long-term moving averages,” wrote an update from analytics firm Glassnode. “After roughly 300 days below them, the dynamics have now flipped.”
Short-Term Volatility Projections
Amid the breakout past $85,000 to $86,000 and recent ETF inflows of $1 billion, short-term risk reversal indicators responded immediately. Laser Digital noted that the indicator moved aggressively in favor of calls (buy options), before pulling back slightly as prices consolidated.
Adding to the month-end picture, a report from Coinbase Markets projected one-standard-deviation price swings through September 27 for several major assets. XRP is expected to lead volatility swings at 8.9%, followed by Solana at 8.0% and Ethereum at 6.9%. In contrast, Bitcoin is projected to see the most moderate move with an expected swing of 5.0%.
The Test Heading Into October
Bitcoin’s return above its moving average range after being held down for nearly a year has opened up significant room for institutional players to maneuver. The $3.2 million options trade confirms that real money is backing the conviction that the path to $95,000 is largely free of significant hurdles.
For both spot and derivatives markets, price action over the coming weeks will test the validity of this low-resistance thesis. The end-of-October target has been set high, and only capital flows will determine the outcome of this wager.
Source: CoinDesk.
Read also: How to Read Candlestick Charts for Beginners
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and carry significant risk. Always do your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
