Bitcoin’s 22% price recovery over the past month is clearly visible on trading charts. However, Nansen Senior Analyst Nicolai Søndergaard believes the rally is not yet backed by sufficient spot flow indicators to confirm the arrival of a bull market. Selling pressure signals loom after Nansen-labeled entities moved a net 3,700 BTC to exchanges over the past week.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States also show an interrupted flow streak. Inflows briefly hit $1.92 billion in their strongest weekly run since October 2025, but outflows quickly dominated once again. Futures funding rates remain positive yet moderate as total open interest shrinks, while taker-flow indicators continue to point to persistent sell pressure.
Rebound Driven by Short Positions
A cumulative $6.55 billion in short liquidations built up gradually over the last two weeks. Søndergaard warned that price rebounds fueled by leverage squeezes could quickly fade once short positions are cleared from the market. Large capital players have responded with contrasting strategies: whales tracked by Nansen have taken modest net-long positions, while large accounts on Hyperliquid maintain heavy short exposure.
$76,400 Support Floor and Macro Reports
The $76,400 level has become a critical support floor for Bitcoin - breaking below this threshold could immediately squeeze leveraged long positions. Strategy maintained its accumulation stance by scooping up 4,603 BTC worth $369.7 million between August 24 and August 30. The purchase was executed even as CEO Phong Le candidly described the current market environment as a difficult bull market.
ADP reported that US private employers added just 38,000 jobs in August, falling short of economists’ expectations. Hiring slowed from a revised 46,000 jobs in July, worsened by the manufacturing sector shedding an additional 17,000 positions. Traders are now focused on the official nonfarm payrolls release from the BLS on September 4, 2026 at 08:30 ET as a crucial momentum decider.
Market pricing assigns a 68% probability to a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, with the 10-year US Treasury yield hovering around 4.80%. Elevated borrowing rates remain a distinct headwind for risk assets. The combination of derivatives market bets and the macroeconomic calendar now awaits directional confirmation by the weekend.
Source: crypto.news.
Also read: How to Read Candlestick Charts for Beginners
Also read: Bitcoin ETFs Snap $2.8B Inflow Streak After Fed Speech - Oddly, Funds Shift to Ethereum
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and carry significant risk. Always do your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
