SEC Chair Paul Atkins stated that the CLARITY Act crypto bill could advance in the Senate over the next two weeks. That expectation points to a procedural or cloture vote scheduled for September 15, 2026, at 2:15 p.m. Eastern Time (ET).
Passing the cloture procedure requires more than a simple majority. Senate rules mandate 60 votes to end procedural delays and open the door to floor debate. The current political makeup gives Republicans 53 seats, requiring them to secure additional votes from Democrats to cross the threshold.
The draft legislation, which would divide oversight between the SEC for securities and the CFTC for digital commodities, has undergone a long journey. The U.S. House of Representatives passed the CLARITY Act by a 294-134 margin in July 2025, followed by the Senate Banking Committee approving its version in a 15-9 vote in May 2026.
Why Are Markets Still Hesitant?
Amid the scheduled timeline, prediction platform Kalshi puts the probability of the bill passing into law in 2026 at 49% - an almost evenly split bet. Figures on Polymarket reflect similar dynamics: the odds once reached 82% in February, plummeted to 16% in early August, and have since gradually climbed back up.
SALT CEO John Darsie admitted to being somewhat bearish on the CLARITY Act’s chances of passing this year due to scheduling conflicts with midterm campaigns. Lawmakers’ attention is expected to be split between finalizing complex regulations and defending their electoral seats.
Substantive debates in committee rooms also remain unresolved. Lawmakers are still considering whether to allow stablecoin issuers to pay interest or user rewards. Protections for DeFi developers and ethics guidelines for public officials holding crypto assets have also yet to reach consensus.
The Regulator’s Backup Plan
Anticipating a potential failure to secure 60 votes, Atkins revealed that the SEC is drafting an internal regulatory framework that could operate in parallel with legislation. The new rules include specific exemptions for certain crypto fundraising activities.
Although the SEC has the option to simply use its existing authority if legislation stalls, that route does not guarantee operational safety for the industry. “We need a statutory basis from Congress,” Atkins said, emphasizing the importance of long-term certainty.
For market participants, September 15 will determine whether the debate over U.S. crypto jurisdictional boundaries reaches a resolution or remains in limbo. Focus has now narrowed to the push for seven additional votes to overcome procedural hurdles.
Reported by crypto.news.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and carry significant risk. Always do your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
