The odds of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) passing this year have dropped to just 27% on the Polymarket prediction market, falling sharply from odds of over 80% in February. The bill is once again stalled in the Senate as of August 3, 2026, and this time the logjam comes from the White House’s silence on a bipartisan ethics proposal.
The ethics proposal was submitted by Senator Thom Tillis from the Republican camp and Ruben Gallego from the Democratic camp. They requested that state attorneys general be given the authority to enforce crypto rules for federal-level officials. If the Department of Justice (DOJ) is deemed to have failed in carrying out those enforcement duties, state prosecutors have the right to sue the DOJ. To date, the White House has neither greenlit nor rejected this idea.
As a result of this deadlock, Senate Majority Leader John Thune has not been able to file a cloture motion to push for a vote on the CLARITY Act. The Senate’s schedule on Monday was focused solely on finalizing a continuing resolution, leaving absolutely no room to discuss H.R. 3633. In fact, this bill needs 60 votes to overcome the filibuster hurdle, meaning they absolutely require additional votes from the Democrats. Beyond the ethics issue, prosecutors and law enforcement agencies are also still taking issue with the protection of non-custodial developers from Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) obligations, despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent having dismissed those concerns.
Treasury Crypto Architect Decides to Leave
Amid the stagnation of this legislative process, a key figure has departed. Tyler Williams, senior crypto adviser to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, officially resigned on Friday, August 1, 2026. Williams was no ordinary staffer; he was the main architect behind the Trump administration’s digital asset agenda since joining in early 2025 from investment firm Galaxy Digital.
Bessent confirmed his departure and called Williams’ role crucial in realizing the US’s ambition to become the crypto capital of the world. As of yet, there has been no official confirmation regarding Williams’ next steps, but strong estimates suggest he will return to the private sector. Williams’ resignation comes at the most decisive period, where the CLARITY Act actually needs the strongest lobbying and political push from within the administration.
Threat of Selling Pressure Ahead of Midterm Elections
The stalling of this comprehensive crypto regulation risks hitting the market. Bernstein analysts warned that delays to the CLARITY Act could trigger a sudden sell-off on crypto exchanges. They estimate the market will only find its bottom in late Q3 or early Q4 of 2026, near the heating up of the midterm elections period.
For crypto market participants looking forward to regulatory clarity from Washington, the 27% figure on Polymarket is a clear signal to recalibrate expectations. As long as the draft ethics proposal remains unanswered by the White House and the Senate’s daily calendar is filled with other resolutions, investors seem poised to face price volatility without definitive legal protection in the near future.
Reported from crypto.news.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and carry significant risk. Always do your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
