Galaxy Digital has cut the odds of passing the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act in 2026 to just 10%. This projection has decreased rapidly and drastically over the last three months. On May 22, Galaxy analysts still placed the bill’s chance of passing at 75%. That estimate was cut to 60% on June 6, slid to 50% on June 26, and has now plummeted to its lowest point.
The draft bill initially brought a breath of fresh air as it was designed as the United States’ first regulatory framework for the entire digital asset ecosystem. Its initial steps went smoothly when the CLARITY Act passed the Senate Banking Committee in May 2026, paving the way for it to be brought to the floor.
Support from within the crypto industry has also flooded in since then. The advocacy group Stand With Crypto has coordinated more than 200 companies and organizations from various blockchain sectors to write to the Senate. They united in urging the passage of the legislation as soon as possible to provide legal certainty for developers.
A Shrinking Time Window
The push from hundreds of crypto industry participants has hit the harsh reality of the political calendar in Washington. Galaxy’s head of research, Alex Thorn, revealed on the X platform that the United States Senate has only about two to three weeks of effective time remaining after they reconvene on September 14, 2026.
The remaining time is too tight to hash out new legislation. To be enacted into law this year, the discussion of the CLARITY Act would have to dominate almost the entire remaining working sessions of the Senate. This scenario is unlikely to happen because the Senate cannot dedicate all of its time to just one agenda and postpone other government business.
Aside from the tight timeline, the draft bill is still held hostage by three underlying issues that have yet to be agreed upon. Disputes remain over drafting ethics rules for government officials holding crypto assets. Additionally, the point regarding protections for developers also continues to be debated.
Why Banks Continue to Oppose
The challenge to passing the CLARITY Act also comes from outside the Senate chamber. The issue that continues to stall progress is strong pressure from the traditional financial sector regarding the rules on dollar-pegged crypto yields.
The majority of Democratic politicians along with the banking industry group have taken a stance against the draft. The root of the problem lies in concerns that this legislation would allow crypto companies to offer stablecoin yields to the public.
Banks feel their position is threatened because stablecoin issuers could potentially pool public funds like banking products, but without having to comply with equivalent strict regulations. This dispute further weighs down the CLARITY Act’s chances of securing a majority vote in the remaining session time.
For waiting developers and crypto companies, the 10% projection from Galaxy is a clear signal. Legal certainty in the United States does not seem to be arriving anytime soon, held back by the narrow window of time and banking lobbies.
As reported by Cointelegraph.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and carry significant risk. Always do your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
