Bitcoin broke through $77,400 on September 18, 2026, shortly after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% - marking the highest monetary policy level implemented in the country in 31 years.
The tightening measure was approved by the BOJ’s Policy Board in a 7-2 vote, enacted to address looming inflation risks while aiming for the 2% price stability target. The BOJ also took a cautious approach by maintaining its forward guidance, emphasizing that interest rates could be raised again if economic activity and price indicators continue to develop according to initial projections.
Bitcoin briefly faced downward pressure, dipping toward $76,200 during overnight trading before reversing direction and recovering past the $77,400 threshold after the decision was released. In Japan’s domestic market, the BTC/JPY pair traded on Tokyo’s bitFlyer exchange also posted a gain of roughly 0.5%, reaching a valuation of 12.06 million yen.
The Yen Weakening Paradox
Despite the rate hike, the Japanese yen weakened in foreign exchange markets, with the USD/JPY pair climbing from 156.20 to 156.70 shortly after the announcement. This weakness occurred as investor focus quickly turned to the two BOJ board members who dissented against the hike, alongside the absence of clear language pointing to a series of upcoming rate increases in the near term.
The Asian currency’s depreciation coincided with capital accumulation in the Americas, where US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs reported net inflows totaling $159.5 million over the same period.
Moving Past the Old Cycle Model
On-chain analyst James Check from research firm Checkonchain stated in a separate interview that Bitcoin has most likely established its cycle bottom for the current run.
Check’s thesis rests on two consecutive waves of selling pressure. He pointed to a price-pain capitulation around the $60,000 zone in February, followed by a time-pain capitulation near $58,000 that exhausted market participants throughout June and July.
Current price levels leave Bitcoin roughly 39% below its historical peak. Bitcoin’s all-time high stood slightly above $126,000 in October 2025.
Entering this new phase, Check offered a blunt warning for crypto market participants to stop putting full faith in the four-year cycle theory. “Assume the clock is broken and find something better,” he noted, challenging the halving-derived timelines long relied upon by most traders.
He advised market observers to shift toward fundamental on-chain metrics, specifically monitoring transaction cost basis, unrealized loss volume, and the actual profitability profile of holders across the network.
Reported via crypto.news.
Also read: What Is Bitcoin Halving?
Previously: US Senate and Fed Push Bitcoin Back to $76,200 - But the Biggest Risk Lies in 4-Hour Chart Indicators
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and carry significant risk. Always do your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
