Circle (CRCL) shares have recorded a 40% increase over the past month. In response to this movement, analysts at research firm Bernstein maintained their “Outperform” rating for the USDC stablecoin issuer, setting a target stock price of $140 - a calculation that implies a potential upside of up to 60% from its current price level.
This increase marks a recovery for Circle’s journey on the public stock exchange. Since its initial public offering (IPO) in June 2025 at $31 per share, Circle’s stock had dropped to touch its IPO price level again in November 2025. However, the company’s latest financial report shows solid metrics. Circle recorded $701 million in revenue with a net profit of $48 million, both of which are up compared to the same period of the previous year.
Taking the Lead in Transaction Volume
The positive movement of Circle’s stock goes hand in hand with the performance of its flagship product, USDC. Over the past seven days, the supply of USDC in the market increased by $2 billion. This supply addition marks a turning point, ending the stagnant movement and shrinkage that had previously held USDC back for six consecutive months. Bernstein analysts refer to this influx of new liquidity as a “digital dollar reflation” - an early indicator of a new phase in USDC’s growth cycle.
In terms of market capitalization, USDC indeed remains in second place, trailing far behind Tether’s market-dominant USDT. However, this dominance map is reversed when dissecting transaction floor activity. Based on adjusted stablecoin transaction volume metrics, USDC’s market share grew from around 40% in 2025 to over 60% throughout 2026. This figure confirms that USDC’s transaction volume and daily turnover have now surpassed USDT’s dominance.
What Are the Driving Factors?
This new phase of growth is supported by various driving factors. Bernstein’s research note cites the recovery of the overall crypto market momentum and a clearer regulatory framework in the United States as its primary foundation. These two factors open up more space for institutions to process digital assets.
Demand for USDC utility is also driven by capital market tokenization trends and the expanding adoption of stablecoins for payment instrument settlements. Early signs of artificial intelligence (AI) agents using stablecoins as a transaction medium also contribute to market expansion. In traditional finance, money transfer firm Western Union has also brought stablecoin remittance services into the Visa network through the Stablecard service.
More Than Just Capitalization Size
The report from Bernstein emphasizes that the stablecoin issuance competition is now judged by more than just measuring market capitalization size on paper. For cash holders and institutions, organic transaction turnover consistently surpassing the market leader’s figures signals which implementation network is most strongly adopted in the real world.
Reported by Cointelegraph.
Read also: What is DeFi (Decentralized Finance)?
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and carry significant risk. Always do your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
