On the Polymarket prediction market, the probability of the CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633) being signed by President Trump before the end of 2026 has tumbled to 25%, down from 30% earlier this week. This pessimistic outlook comes even as pressure from various stakeholders continues to intensify.
However, the remaining window before the Senate enters its August recess is narrowing fast, while the draft crypto bill must compete for floor time against a packed slate of urgent national priorities.
Responding to the dwindling time, Grayscale sent an urgent letter to senators calling for a vote before the recess begins, highlighting that hundreds of thousands of Americans currently hold their digital investment products. Going a step further, its parent company, Digital Currency Group, also sent a similar appeal directly to Senate Majority Leader Thune and Minority Leader Schumer.
Pressure is not only coming from the private sector. Treasury Secretary Bessent explicitly urged the Senate to take action “NOW.” However, the Senate’s schedule is already jammed with a backlog of other business, spanning nominations, government funding appropriations, drafting Iran sanctions, and addressing the Russia-Ukraine conflict. According to Senator Lummis, Thune has reserved dedicated floor time for the CLARITY Act, but as of now, there is still no confirmed timeline for when the bill will be taken up.
A Compromise on Paper
Amid the scheduling uncertainty, a glimmer of hope has emerged from lobbying efforts. SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci predicts Trump will approve a compromise ethics proposal currently being negotiated by Republican Senator Thom Tillis and Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego. The compromise grants state attorneys general a new role in enforcing digital asset restrictions on federal officials - a responsibility previously held exclusively by the federal attorney general.
The compromise text was submitted to the White House on Thursday. However, as of publication time, there has been no official confirmation on whether the document has reached Trump’s desk or remains held up with presidential aides. Even if the Senate advances amendments based on this text, the final bill must be re-approved by both the House and Senate before Trump can sign it into law. Notably, the US House of Representatives already passed the CLARITY Act by a decisive 294-134 vote in July 2025, which included support from 78 Democrats.
What Obstacles Remain?
Beyond timing and procedural hurdles, the legislation remains caught in fierce debates over substantive provisions. Remaining sticking points include controversies surrounding stablecoin yield and rewards provisions, legal protections for blockchain developers, and ambiguity over the division of jurisdictional authority between the SEC and the CFTC. These three issues represent major roadblocks that lawmakers must resolve in just a matter of days.
Failing to pass the bill before the August recess begins would push the entire debate into a crowded year-end legislative calendar. For crypto entrepreneurs and investors awaiting regulatory clarity, any delay means navigating an increasingly competitive market without a legal roadmap.
Reported by crypto.news.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and carry significant risk. Always do your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
