Bitcoin’s bearish market cycle most likely ended when prices bottomed out below $58,000 in June 2026. The assessment was made by Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, in a research report titled ‘Why now is the time to add and hold BTC’. The US digital financial and infrastructure firm, listed on Nasdaq under the ticker GLXY, views current market action as an accumulation phase that historically precedes major rallies.
This shift is not merely a paper sentiment recovery, but is anchored in changes to weekly technical structure and capital owner composition.
Five Weekly Closes Break Trendline
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin broke through and held above its 50-week moving average (MA) after spending 44 consecutive weeks below that trendline. The reversal is reinforced by five straight weekly closes above the 50-week MA, signaling the formation of a solid price floor.
The exit of short-term speculators or fast money is seen as leaving behind a healthier, more resilient investor base. The decline in speculative interest is visible in CME Bitcoin futures data, where asset managers’ net long exposure has plunged 57% from its peak, alongside ETF holding reductions by several large trading firms.
Absorption of 87,000 BTC and Waning Market Attention
On the other hand, pure directional demand is beginning to recover. Spot Bitcoin ETF products have absorbed an additional 87,000 BTC since the June low. These inflows were recorded as outright accumulation rather than basis arbitrage trades merely seeking short-term price spreads.
United States macroeconomic factors also serve as structural catalysts. Surging US national debt, persistent budget deficits, and soaring debt interest costs bolster Bitcoin’s appeal as a fixed-supply asset.
Institutional interest shifting to other sectors also presents a contrarian signal. Institutional enthusiasm is currently diverted toward stablecoins and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization amid fading attention on Bitcoin, mirroring sentiment patterns seen at the nadir of prior cycles.
Risk Threshold at $76,540
Despite strengthening accumulation signals, Galaxy outlined a clear risk boundary. The technical thesis is invalidated if a weekly close occurs below $76,540 and fails to recover within a one-month window.
In the spot market, Bitcoin’s price is currently hovering around the $80,000 range. This stands in sharp contrast to pessimistic narratives from market analysts such as Jason Calacanis, who warned that BTC risks falling to $57,000.
For market participants around $80,000, the $76,540 line serves as the deciding benchmark between a continuing accumulation phase or confirmation of the downside correction projected by pessimistic observers.
Reported via CoinDesk.
Read also: What Is Bitcoin Halving?
Read also: Franklin Templeton Lists Two ETFs on Nasdaq - US Stock Dividends Automatically Flow into Bitcoin
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and carry significant risk. Always do your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
