The combined prediction market platforms of Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US recorded a record trading volume of $50.59 billion throughout July 2026. Out of this transaction flow, Kalshi dominated 74.5% of the market share, posting a 14% volume growth from the previous month.
Polymarket US recorded the sharpest growth, rising 54% to reach $5 billion. This increase occurred after the platform removed its waiting list in May 2026 to open broader access for users in the United States. Conversely, the international version of Polymarket dropped 26% to $7.9 billion. Combined, the total volume of the two Polymarket entities fell from $14 billion in June to $12.9 billion in July.
This figure was directly driven by the euphoria of the FIFA World Cup, which took place from June 11 to July 19. The betting market for the final match between Spain and Argentina on Kalshi alone recorded a volume of up to $1.89 billion, ending with a 1-0 victory for Spain.
Chainalysis data shows a broader scale: blockchain prediction markets related to the World Cup recorded a turnover of $20 billion from January until the tournament ended. Around 400,000 crypto wallets generated $5.7 billion during the five weeks of the competition. Contracts for this tournament accounted for a 63% share of all prediction market activity during that period. As a result, the market’s open interest dropped from $2 billion at the beginning of July to $1.2 billion at the end of the month, as many positions were settled post-match.
Lawsuits Begin to Roll In
The end of the tournament opened a new chapter in court. On July 31, New York filed a lawsuit against Kalshi, accusing it of operating an illegal, unlicensed gambling operation. The state is demanding a cessation of operations, fines, and restitution payments for customers.
Kalshi’s position is actually backed by national licensing. The platform has been registered as a designated contract market by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) since November 2020. Polymarket US, under the QCX banner, also holds a similar registered status.
Four days before the New York lawsuit emerged, a ruling in Minnesota provided some relief. A federal judge temporarily barred Minnesota authorities from applying their local laws to Kalshi and Polymarket US. The court ruled that the platforms are likely to succeed on their arguments regarding federal preemption, although the judge warned that not all event contracts qualify as federal-level swap instruments.
Testing Post-Tournament Resilience
The origin of users has also come under scrutiny amid these tight regulations. Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane estimates that 30% of the volume on offshore Polymarket comes from U.S. users, with estimates ranging between 19% and 48%.
August has now become the first testing ground for prediction markets without the main driver of the global soccer tournament. The challenge is to see whether regular contracts in sports, politics, and economics can maintain the capital turnover generated throughout July. Reported from crypto.news.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and carry significant risk. Always do your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
