On prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the CLARITY Act passing into law in 2026 has dropped to 34% from 53% on July 21. This decline comes as the US Senate decided to prioritize federal nominations alongside Russia and Iran sanctions measures over crypto market structure legislation.
Time is no longer just an obstacle for the bill’s proponents, but a tangible threat.
Racing Against the Summer Recess
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has yet to schedule any floor action to take up the CLARITY Act. Initial proceedings for the legislation will likely not occur until the week of August 3. The challenge is that the Senate’s summer recess begins after August 7, leaving only a four-day window for full deliberations.
Galaxy Digital Head of Research Alex Thorn noted that the calendar has turned into an adversary. He estimated that floor debate would need to begin before July 30 to give the Senate adequate time to clear procedural votes and debate. Similar pessimism is reflected on prediction platform Kalshi, which placed the probability of the bill passing before the end of 2026 at 42%.
The Vote Count Threatening Crypto
To overcome the filibuster hurdle and pass the legislation, proponents need a 60-vote threshold. Republicans currently hold 53 seats, but Thorn sees their firm support closer to 50. Senators Josh Hawley and Rand Paul have not yet committed their votes, while Senator Mitch McConnell remains hospitalized.
Earlier in May, the Senate Banking Committee approved a version of the CLARITY Act in a 15-9 vote, with two Democrats joining to support the initial draft. However, both Democratic senators cautioned from the outset that their committee support did not guarantee a yes vote when the bill reaches the Senate floor.
Hostage to Partisan Feuds
The weakening legislative momentum is closely tied to political dynamics leading up to the election. Financier Anthony Scaramucci remarked that opponents will do everything possible to block the bill simply because Donald Trump wants it. Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson shared a similar sentiment, warning that the Trump-centered narrative has turned crypto regulation into a partisan battleground.
Ironically, the push for urgent regulatory clarity came directly from the head of the regulatory agency. In a post highlighted by WatcherGuru that garnered 5,101 likes, SEC Chair Paul Atkins called on the Senate to swiftly pass the CLARITY Act.
For US crypto industry participants, the Senate gridlock means continuing to operate without regulatory certainty while waiting for lawmakers to resolve their political priorities. Source: crypto.news.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and carry significant risk. Always do your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
