Bitcoin touched a price of nearly $73,000 on Thursday (Aug. 20) with an increase of over 13% since mid-week, according to TradingView data. This surge led Bitcoin to break above its 200-day moving average (MA) for the first time since November 2025, ending a nine-month absence from that technical line since its record high of $126,000.
The initial catalyst came from outside the crypto market. On Wednesday, the US Treasury announced plans to double its long-term bond buybacks from $2 million to a minimum of $4 million per operation, effective September 9.
However, behind this price surge, another engine was forcing the chart upward.
Fueled by Short Positions
Over $3 billion in crypto short positions were liquidated, marking the largest wipeout since 2021. Nansen Senior Research Analyst, Nicolai Sondergaard, specifically noted that this rally was largely driven by forced liquidations or a short squeeze, rather than sustained buying. Technical indicators support his warning: the 1-hour RSI approached 78, and the 4-hour RSI stood above 85.
Institutional money flows remained visible. Throughout the week, digital asset investment products attracted around $1.3 billion. Investment vehicles such as spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows of $517 million specifically on August 19, marking the largest influx since last May.
Is This the End of the Bear Market?
These contrasting data points have triggered differing views among analysts. Bitwise Analyst Ishmael Asad views the breakout above the 200-day MA as the strongest confirmation that a price floor has formed. Geoff Kendrick from Standard Chartered agreed, seeing a continuation of the trend and stating that the Treasury bond intervention could act as fuel for Bitcoin’s rally toward $100,000 by the end of the year.
The opposing camp believes the market is not yet out of the danger zone. CoinShares Head of Research, James Butterfill, emphasized that the current price movement is more rooted in macroeconomics than crypto-specific sentiment. According to him, price movements will likely remain range-bound instead of forming a sustained breakout. Julio Moreno from CryptoQuant gave a similar technical warning. He noted that the market remains in bear market territory as the P&L Index has not crossed above the 365-day MA, leaving room for a potential downside correction or pullback.
Decisive Levels on the Trading Desk
Currently, Bitcoin is facing immediate resistance at $72,824, a level that must be breached before challenging the key $80,000 mark. Sondergaard pointed to the 200-day SMA line around $69,000 as the trend-deciding threshold. Staying above that figure would validate the breakout, but a close below it would indicate that this upward movement has failed.
For traders jumping in on the green wave, the boost from mass liquidations is no guarantee of solid long-term gains. The $69,000 line is now the thin boundary separating a new trend from a mere temporary forced spike.
As reported by Cointelegraph.
Read also: What Is Bitcoin Halving?
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and carry significant risk. Always do your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
