Bitcoin rebounded toward the $84,500 level, notching a new weekly high after facing downward pressure in early October 2026. The market recovery was led by a surge in alternative crypto assets such as XRP and Zcash (ZEC), restoring optimism for the seasonal Uptober uptrend.
Market panic has also begun to ease. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose 3 points to 55, placing sentiment in the neutral zone. This uptick suggests market participants have moved past the panic phase, though they have yet to enter a price-chasing frenzy, or FOMO.
However, behind the price gains in the spot market, signals from the bond market and macroeconomic data point in a different direction.
Liquidity Drained into Government Bonds
On the macroeconomic front, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2026 rose 3.7% year-on-year. That figure exceeded economists’ forecasts of 3.6% and marked an increase from 3.4% in August.
Higher inflation pushed US Treasury yields to remain above the 5% level. Yields at this mark drain liquidity from both stock and crypto markets while increasing borrowing costs for traders using leverage.
The Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate remains in the 3.75% to 4% range following a hike in September. CME FedWatch data indicates an 80% probability that interest rates will be held steady at the October 28 meeting, while markets are beginning to anticipate a potential rate hike at the December 9 meeting.
Buy Signals on the Daily Chart
On technical charts, Bitcoin’s price action continues to show buyer resilience. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sits near $80,782, above the 200-day EMA at $76,084. This positioning confirms a medium-term bullish trend, with BTC trading 4.6% above its 50-day EMA line.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 58.5. This reflects buyer dominance in the market without the risk of overbought conditions, a threshold traders typically watch once the indicator crosses above 70.
Why Betting Markets Remain Skeptical
The diverging trends between technical indicators and macroeconomic pressures are reflected in betting markets. Data from prediction platform Myriad puts the probability of Bitcoin touching $87,500 in October 2026 at 31%, down from 45% recorded on October 12. At the same time, the odds of Bitcoin reaching $90,000 stand at just 18%.
For market participants holding leveraged positions, bond yields above 5% serve as a reminder that capital costs have not eased. The rebound to $84,500 offers breathing room for the spot market after early-month pressure, but dwindling odds in betting markets suggest the path to new highs remains held back by liquidity constraints.
Originally reported by Decrypt.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and carry significant risk. Always do your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
