The United States economy has just recorded its first net job loss since the pandemic-era recovery. July employment data showed a loss of 23,000 jobs, missing economists’ projections which anticipated the addition of 95,000 new positions.
The unemployment rate did drop to 4.1%. However, that figure declined because more people chose to leave the labor force, not because they were reabsorbed. The report also included negative revisions for previous months: June’s job additions were slashed to just 20,000 from the initial report of 57,000, while May’s figures were revised down by nearly half.
These macro numbers immediately trickled into the markets. Citing the @WatcherGuru account on X, the loss of 23,000 jobs in July means the Fed is no longer projected to raise interest rates next month. CME FedWatch data showed the probability of a September rate hike slid to 40%, down from 55% the previous day. Consequently, Treasury yields fell and the US dollar weakened by 0.5%.
Market Dims, Bitcoin Trapped in a Death Cross
A weakening dollar usually fuels crypto. In reality, Bitcoin barely budged in response to these conditions. The price rose by just 1.06%, trading at the $64,938 level during that trading session.
The price remains trapped below a “death cross” formation on the chart - a condition where the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) crosses below the 200-day EMA line. This cross pattern brings a continued bearish signal for the medium term.
Complementary indicators also confirm the lack of resistance. Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is stalled at 54.6. This level indicates neutral market momentum - buyers lack the strength to trigger a breakout, while sellers have not yet sparked a washout.
This series of passive signals reinforces the post-second-quarter trajectory. After touching a peak near $80,000 in mid-May, Bitcoin slowly ground lower to hit its July low around $58,000.
Evaluating Support or Decline Thresholds
The gloomy chart projections align with trader expectations. On the prediction platform Myriad, market participants responded by betting on a 65% chance that Bitcoin will drop back to the $55,000 level. The public anticipates the price hitting that floor first before building room for a recovery toward $84,000.
Currently, attention is focused on $65,000 as a critical level for buyers. If this defense breaks and price action pierces the $60,000 threshold, analysts could see confirmation of a drop to deeper levels.
Today’s test for Bitcoin proves that economic weakness is not always a catalyst for crypto. Sometimes, the threat of financial contraction actually drives capital away from high-risk assets. Reported by Decrypt.
Also read: What Is Bitcoin Halving?
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and carry significant risk. Always do your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
