The United States labor market recorded a poor performance. The Nonfarm Payrolls report for July 2026 shows the US lost 23,000 jobs. This figure fell far short of market expectations, which had previously predicted an addition of 80,000 jobs. This marks the first negative growth since last February, when the country lost 156,000 jobs at once.
The bad news does not stop there. The same report also revised down the data from the previous two months. The June figure, which was initially reported as an addition of 57,000, has now been slashed to just 20,000. Meanwhile, job additions in May were corrected from 129,000 to 63,000. This series of weaknesses signals a real slowdown in the real sector.
Unemployment Rate Anomaly
Behind the loss of tens of thousands of jobs, this report holds an anomaly. The unemployment rate actually dropped to 4.1%, slightly better than the initial projection of 4.2%. Hourly wage growth also slowed down, rising only 0.1% compared to expectations of 0.3%. Looking back over the past year, wages rose 3.2% - slower than analysts’ estimates of 3.5%.
Market participants immediately read this weakness as a signal that the US Central Bank (The Fed) has a reason to loosen policy. US stock futures responded with gains, in line with falling interest rates. Hedging assets also got a boost: gold prices surged 3% and silver jumped nearly 6% on the same day.
Bitcoin’s Cold Stance
Amid the volatility of traditional instruments, the largest crypto asset actually showed a cold reaction. Bitcoin was relatively calm and stayed within a moderate range of $65,000, without any significant price movement. The crypto did not join the euphoria of the stock market or gold, as if distancing itself from the negative sentiment of the labor data.
This data immediately influenced market calculations regarding the direction of monetary policy. The probability of the Fed raising interest rates at the September meeting shrank to 46%, dropping sharply from 55% before this employment report was released.
Despite the poor raw numbers, not everyone is telling the market to panic. RSM economist Joe Brusuelas said the Fed should ignore this July report. He believes there are anomalies in seasonal adjustments distorting the data, particularly related to the timing of the World Cup. Meanwhile, JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon responded to the situation by stating he has no intention of buying long-term government bonds for now.
The two views from Brusuelas and Dimon summarize the doubts of market participants about how fragile the US economy currently is. Bitcoin remaining stationary seems to represent a wait-and-see attitude - at least until there is clarity on the direction from regulators. Sourced from CoinDesk.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and carry significant risk. Always do your own research (DYOR) and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
